“What remains unsettled is how regulators, institutions, and the public will ultimately choose to classify prediction markets. That decision may determine whether prediction markets become embedded infrastructure or not…”
i do love how some terms just changes and its essence in the same, but needs different classification and policy.
i wonder what the appetite will end up being here.
i’ve already seen substackers using the new feature. i’m torn. some of it does display some data… but then i feel like im helping enable this mess
Great post. What is concerning to me is the potential for betting against actors with inside information. In this scenario, those who know what will happen and when (attack against Iran, timing of tariff announcement, etc.), can collect a small fortune from those without inside knowledge who think that the chances of willing are 50:50. This is worse than a casino; the house wins all the time. We are seeing this already, and it seems that things will get worse unless those markets are tightly regulated.
“What remains unsettled is how regulators, institutions, and the public will ultimately choose to classify prediction markets. That decision may determine whether prediction markets become embedded infrastructure or not…”
i do love how some terms just changes and its essence in the same, but needs different classification and policy.
i wonder what the appetite will end up being here.
i’ve already seen substackers using the new feature. i’m torn. some of it does display some data… but then i feel like im helping enable this mess
Yes, people have started to use it casually for content in their notes.
You ain't gonna see me do that.
😂
Great post. What is concerning to me is the potential for betting against actors with inside information. In this scenario, those who know what will happen and when (attack against Iran, timing of tariff announcement, etc.), can collect a small fortune from those without inside knowledge who think that the chances of willing are 50:50. This is worse than a casino; the house wins all the time. We are seeing this already, and it seems that things will get worse unless those markets are tightly regulated.
Yes so many examples of insider trading and it’s such a bad part about prediction markets.
Btw I also did a part 2 on prediction markets in which I dived in more detail covering a lot of other issues apart from insider trading:
https://www.sknexus.org/p/truth-infrastructure-behind-prediction-markets?lli=1
Absolutely amazing!
I have been waiting to read this, ever since you mentioned you are going to be writing on this topic. Really reeally good post!!!!
Really? Means a lot, glad you liked it.
amazing article
Thanks man!