Every advanced chip in your phone, GPU, or car runs through one company's machines. Why ASML's EUV lithography can't be replicated — even with billions.
Great breakdown of the EUV moat, the physics are genuinely staggering. One thing worth layering on from an investor's standpoint: ASML doesn't just have a product monopoly, it has a timing monopoly. Equipment orders tend to lead chip fab demand by 12–18 months, which means ASML's backlog and order intake are arguably the best leading indicators in the entire semiconductor supply chain, more forward-looking than TSMC's quarterly guidance or Nvidia's unit demand. The recent EUV throughput breakthrough (tin laser firing rate doubling to 100K droplets/second by 2030) is actually a capacity expansion story, not just a tech story. The question I'd push back on slightly: with ~$35B in backlog as of late 2025 and EUV shipments tightly rationed, does ASML's pricing power get tested if fab capex cycles soften before 2027? Or is the backlog deep enough to insulate them?
Great breakdown of the EUV moat, the physics are genuinely staggering. One thing worth layering on from an investor's standpoint: ASML doesn't just have a product monopoly, it has a timing monopoly. Equipment orders tend to lead chip fab demand by 12–18 months, which means ASML's backlog and order intake are arguably the best leading indicators in the entire semiconductor supply chain, more forward-looking than TSMC's quarterly guidance or Nvidia's unit demand. The recent EUV throughput breakthrough (tin laser firing rate doubling to 100K droplets/second by 2030) is actually a capacity expansion story, not just a tech story. The question I'd push back on slightly: with ~$35B in backlog as of late 2025 and EUV shipments tightly rationed, does ASML's pricing power get tested if fab capex cycles soften before 2027? Or is the backlog deep enough to insulate them?
Mhe, really depends on how the AI hype cycle goes IMO